Meridian’s Investor Days offer special insight into the work happening across Meridian to deliver more for New Zealand. We’re sharing some of the insights from our latest Investor Day to show what we’re doing to improve New Zealand’s electricity system and deliver better outcomes for our customers.
“Market modelling isn’t about prediction—it’s about preparing for plausible futures.”
Meridian General Manager Strategy and Portfolio Rory Blundell says Meridian’s approach to long-term planning is built around two core narratives: “Evolution and Revolution. Both show demand growth after years of stagnation.”
Industrial electrification, the uptake of electric vehicles, and the potential arrival of large data centres are expected to drive significant demand increases and reshape New Zealand’s electricity market. The challenge for the sector isn’t just building more generation—it’s ensuring reliability when thermal plants exit and gas declines.
“These shifts require widespread investment in generation and grid, and the scale of change will test the system’s flexibility, says Rory.
“With gas supplies in decline, we need more long-duration flexibility for dry years. Hydro reservoir management will remain a central part of the solution, but firming capacity will also depend on batteries and demand response.”
Modelling suggests prices averaging around $120–$130 (Real) per megawatt-hour over the next decade, which is high enough to support investment, while reflecting the cost of firming.
Flexible assets, especially hydro, will earn above average, says Rory, who points to Meridian’s integrated portfolio as a key advantage. He also says that as more intermittent generation enters the system, flexibility and risk management will be critical.
Meridian’s strategy includes callable swap arrangements, demand response contracts, and leveraging its hydro backbone to manage variability.
